[Backtest] Monte Carlo Dynamic Asset Rotation Lookback/Market Cap Sweep Report

Monte Carlo Dynamic Rotation Lookback/Market Cap Sweep Report

This report evaluates the 5-year performance of a Monte Carlo weight-optimized dynamic asset rotation strategy (investing in K=4 stocks) across various market capitalization size groups (10, 100, 200, 300, 500) and momentum analysis lookback periods (1 to 200 days).
Simulation Period: Jan 4, 2021 ~ Jun 25, 2026 (1,375 Trading Days)

★ Best Performing Parameter Combination

Market Cap Group: TOP 500
Momentum Lookback: 175 Days
Final Portfolio Value: $176,491.91
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): 69.1%
Maximum Drawdown (MDD): -33.42%

1. Benchmark Market Performance (Buy & Hold)

Strategy & Indicator Final Assets ($) CAGR (%) MDD (%)
SPY (S&P 500 Hold) $19,891.54 13.41% -25.36%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 Hold) $23,822.06 17.22% -35.62%

2. Recent Rebalancing Weights History (Last 5 Months)

Below is the asset weight allocation of the best parameter combination during the last 5 rebalancing events:

Rebalance_Date Symbol_1 Weight_1 Symbol_2 Weight_2 Symbol_3 Weight_3 Symbol_4 Weight_4
2026-02-02 BE 0.1723 LITE 0.0974 WDC 0.4094 MU 0.3210
2026-03-02 LITE 0.3079 BE 0.1339 WDC 0.2960 CIEN 0.2621
2026-04-01 LITE 0.3086 BE 0.1035 CIEN 0.3069 WDC 0.2810
2026-05-01 LITE 0.1421 BE 0.0908 CIEN 0.4079 WDC 0.3592
2026-06-01 MU 0.4016 WDC 0.2219 LITE 0.0846 CIEN 0.2919

3. Top 10 Best Performing Parameter Combinations

Group Lookback_Days Final_Value CAGR (%) MDD (%)
TOP 500 175 176491.91 69.10 -33.42
TOP 500 185 171356.29 68.19 -32.92
TOP 500 140 159052.74 65.91 -34.60
TOP 500 200 154589.05 65.05 -35.30
TOP 500 170 152821.59 64.70 -46.38
TOP 500 110 152467.62 64.63 -40.37
TOP 500 180 142746.54 62.66 -43.18
TOP 500 115 129459.71 59.78 -42.68
TOP 200 175 123556.56 58.42 -33.75
TOP 500 190 122748.26 58.23 -34.38

* This post was automatically generated by the MoonShot GPU Backtest System based on large-scale Monte Carlo sweep results.

댓글

가장 많이 본 글